Kevin McCarthy’s 2013 Oscar Predictions

Each year, l get all geeked out about the Oscars and almost every year, they let me down. Though, for some reason, each year I get more excited than the previous year. After watching well over 100 movies in 2012, I can’t help but feel invested in what happens on Oscar night.

I’m not the biggest sports fan on the planet but I imagine it’s the same feeling sports fans have for the Super Bowl. Ever since I was a little kid, I would always stay up late and watch the Oscars with an extreme fascination as to who would take home the major awards.

Throughout the years, I started to get more and more frustrated as it seemed the Academy was always voting for the “Safe” movie choices. The awards seem to be given on a more political basis versus going to the most deserving. It’s all about how the nominee is campaigned. We all know that Harvey Weinstein is one of the greatest campaigners of all time and that has been proven time and time again.

In recent years, seeing films like “The King’s Speech” win over “Inception”/”The Social Network” or an unoriginal film like “The Artist” win Best Picture, when more deserving films like “Drive” weren’t even nominated, really grinds my gears (Seth MacFarlane reference #1).

I really lost faith in the Academy on March 21, 1999 when the Academy decided to give “Shakespeare in Love” (Weinstein) Best Picture over “Saving Private Ryan”. I then started to look back over the history of the Academy Awards and I noticed a pattern. The Academy rarely goes for films that take any risks. This brings us back to the politics of the Academy. Alfred Hitchcock NEVER won an Academy Award, yet he’s considered to be one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. Martin Scorsese didn’t take home an Oscar until he remade a film!

Listen, I loved “The Departed” but it has nothing on “Goodfellas”, “Mean Streets”, “Raging Bull” or “Taxi Driver”. Most of the awards in recent years have been career awards (Sandra Bullock winning over Gabourey Sidibe!) You always hear people rationalizing a win for certain person based on their “career”. The award should be for the current performance or film; not what happened over the course of that person’s career.

That being said, I look forward to watching the Oscars every single year. They are my Super Bowl. They are greatest night of television for me. I sit back and watch all the red carpet coverage and EVERY second of the live show. Below, you will find some interesting facts about the Oscars this year plus my 2013 Oscar predictions.

WHO VOTES:
There are over 6,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The Academy consists of directors, writers, producers and actors. Actors make up the largest group of voters.

INTERESTING FACTS
1) An actor or an actress in a Steven Spielberg film has never won an Academy Award for appearing in one of his films. For example, Tom Hanks won Best Actor for Robert Zemeckis’ “Forrest Gump” but he hasn’t won an Oscar for appearing in a Spielberg film.

2) The 2013 Oscar nominations feature the youngest and oldest Actresses ever to be nominated for Best Actress. Emmanuelle Riva turns 86 on the night of the Oscars and Quvenzhane Wallis is only nine years of age.

3) “Silver Linings Playbook” is the first film since 1982 to be nominated in all four acting categories (Jacki Weaver, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper). The last film to do that was “Reds”.

4) Roger Deakins, who is nominated for Best Cinematography (and deserves to win), has been nominated nine times prior to this nomination but has never won the Academy Awards. How did Deakins not win for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”? That is hands down one of the best shot films I’ve ever seen.

5) John Williams, who is nominated for Best Original Score, has been nominated forty-eight times in his career, making him the second most nominated person ever next to Walt Disney.

6) All five actors in the Supporting Acting category already have an Oscar. Robert De Niro hasn’t won an Oscar since he won for “Raging Bull” in 1981.

7) Only three times in the eighty-four year history of the Oscars, has a film won Best Picture without having a Best Director nomination. The last time that happened was in 1990 when “Driving Miss Daisy” won Best Picture. The other two films were “Wings” (the first film to ever win Best Picture) and “Grand Hotel”.

8) “Argo” was not nominated for Best Director but it did win Best Picture and Best Director at the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Golden Globes. Ben Affleck won the DGA (Directors Guild of America) and the BAFTA award. “Argo” also took home the WGA (Writers Guild of America), PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the SAG award for Best Ensemble Cast. Though, “Apollo 13” had a very similar run back in 1995 where Howard didn’t get nominated and the movie won the DGA, PGA and SAG. But, “Apollo 13” did NOT win the Golden Globe for Best Picture and Best Director. “Argo” won both of those awards so it has the momentum. I just don’t understand how a film can be nominated for BEST PICTURE and then you don’t nominate the person who created the entire film.

MY PREDICTIONS

There are only two locks this year in the main categories and those are Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables” and Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln”.

1) BEST PICTURE (Nominees: “Amour”, “Argo”, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, “Django Unchained”, “Les Miserables”, “Lincoln”, “Life of Pi”, “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Zero Dark Thirty”)
WILL WIN: Argo – The odds are simultaneously for and against this film to win. The odds are against it because if it does win Best Picture, it would be the fourth film in the 85 years of Oscar History, to win Best Picture without having a Best Director nomination. The odds are for it because it has won essentially every award leading up to the Oscars including the BFCA, SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA and GOLDEN GLOBE (For Best Picture and Best Director)
SHOULD WIN: Django Unchained – Hands down, the best film of 2012. It encompasses everything there is to love about cinema; great dialogue, phenomenal acting, original story-telling, great action, shot on beautiful 35mm film with anamorphic lenses.

2) BEST ACTOR (Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington)
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis – This will be the first time in Oscar history that an actor has won an Oscar for appearing in a Steven Spielberg film.
SHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix – Hands down, the most emotional and physical performance of 2012. A brilliant performance that draws you in to his crazy character. This is a very tough year to be up for Best Actor. Hugh Jackman delivered the best performance of his career and truly deserves the award over Daniel Day-Lewis.

3) BEST ACTRESS (Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis and Naomi Watts) – Tough category because Lawrence won the SAG/Golden Globe (Comedy), Chastain won Golden Globe Drama and Riva won BAFTA.
WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence – Lawrence gained momentum ahead of Jessica Chastain after she won the SAG (Screen Actors Guild Award). The person to look out for though is Emmanuelle Riva, who took home the BAFTA award. Riva is also the oldest actress ever to be nominated and he birthday is the night of the Oscars. If Riva wins the award, she would be the oldest person to ever win an Oscar.
SHOULD WIN: Jessica Chastain – Chastain’s performance was much more internal. This makes it hard for her performance to have a bunch of “showy” moments. Lawrence’s performance is much more “showy”. I personally prefer Chastain because of the internal balance she created.

4) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Christoph Waltz) – Waltz won the Golden Globe and BAFTA Awards. Jones won the SAG award.
WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz This is a TOUGH category – Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG award but Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe and BAFTA Award. I have to say Waltz only because of the Weinstein backing.
SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz – Waltz delivers the best Supporting performance of the year.

5) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt, Jacki Weaver)
WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway – Along with Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, this is a major lock.
SHOULD WIN: Anne Hathaway – Hathaway wins this award in a 3 minute and 40 second sequence where she sings “DREAMED A DREAM” – A masterful performance that is simulaneously beautiful and devastating.

6) BEST DIRECTOR (“Amour”, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, “Life of Pi”, “Lincoln”, “Silver Linings Playbook”) – This is the most interesting character because if “Argo” takes Best Picture, what will take director? The Best Picture generally, but not always, matches the Best Director.
WILL WIN: David O’ Russell for Silver Linings Playbook – This will be neck and neck with Spielberg and O’ Russell) – I think O’ Russell takes it because of the four acting nomination categories. He has four acting categories covered with nominees. Steven Spielberg is favored and I understand that I’m going against the grain.
SHOULD WIN: ANG LEE for Life of Pi – Lee created an environment where 3D was a necessary tool in the story-telling. That’s what makes the direction so brilliant.

7) ANIMATED FEATURE (“Brave”, “Frankenweenie”, “Paranorman”, “The Pirates, Band of Misfits”, “Wreck-It Ralph”)
WILL WIN: Brave – Because it’s PIXAR
SHOULD WIN: Wreck-it Ralph

8) CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: Life of Pi
SHOULD WIN: Skyfall

9) COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: Anna Karenina
SHOULD WIN: Anna Karenina

10) DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: Searching for Sugar Man
SHOULD WIN: Searching for Sugar Man

11) DOCUMENTARY SHORT (Haven’t seen these films so these are just strictly guesses)
WILL WIN: Redemption

12) FILM EDITING
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD WIN: ARGO

13) FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: AMOUR
SHOULD WIN: A ROYAL AFFAIR

14) MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: LES MISERABLES
SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES

15) MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD WIN: SKYFALL

16) MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
WILL WIN: SKYFALL
SHOULD WIN: SKYFALL

17) PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: ANNA KARENINA
SHOULD WIN: ANNA KARENINA

18) SHORT FILM (ANIMATED) (Haven’t seen these films so these are just strictly guesses)
WILL WIN: Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare

19) SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
WILL WIN: BUZKASHI BOYS
SHOULD WIN: BUZKASHI BOYS

20) SOUND EDITING
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD WIN: DJANGO UNCHAINED

21) SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD WIN: LES MISERABLES

22) VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: LIFE OF PI
SHOULD WIN: AVENGERS

23) WRITING (ADAPTED)
WILL WIN: ARGO
SHOULD WIN: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

24) WRITING (ORIGINAL)
WILL WIN: DJANGO UNCHAINED
SHOULD WIN: DJANGO UNCHAINED

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